R.Politik CEO and founder, Tatiana Stanovaya, is regularly quoted by major Russian and international media outlets. She is available for commentary in Russian and English.

Commentary for CNBC

‘Life is getting harder for Putin’: Experts say Moscow protests show president’s power could be waning

Tatiana Stanovaya, a non-resident scholar at the Carnegie Center in Moscow, told CNBC that disapproval of Putin is increasing, nonetheless.“In Russia, we have growing discontent among ordinary Russians and this is seen through the falling approval ratings of Putin. The decline began in June 2018 so it’s a general process,” she said. Stanovaya noted that the Moscow protests had started as a local movement but had become nationalized due to the perceived harshness of the authorities’ response.

“In the beginning it was (a) Moscow conflict but the Kremlin’s support of harsh tactics by the authorities meant that it became a federal case and a federal agenda,” she told CNBC last week. She believed Putin had underestimated the situation: “He thinks it will calm down but i don’t think so. I think he will have to face some longer-term risks from parts of Russian society” unhappy with his rule, she noted.

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Interview for L’Observatoire

« 3 QUESTIONS À » Tatiana Stanovaya

1) Au terme de nombreuses manifestations fin juillet et début août, Sergueï Tchemezov, patron de Rostec et ami de 30 ans de Vladimir Poutine, a fait des déclarations remarquées, soulignant notamment le besoin d’une opposition et mettant en garde contre une nouvelle stagnation. Assiste-t-on aux premières failles du système ?

Le mécontentement au sein de l’élite quant à la direction empruntée par le pays, latent ou exprimé ouvertement, existe depuis plusieurs années. Cela concerne à la fois l’ampleur de la confrontation avec l’Occident et les défis internes liés principalement à la qualité de la gouvernance. Cependant, récemment, et en particulier dans le cadre de la crise à Moscou, une autre ligne de fracture plus nette a vu le jour : sur la marge de manœuvre accordée aux forces de l’ordre, ou plus généralement aux porteurs de l’idéologie “sécuritaire” (aux siloviki), qui, ces dernières années ont pris une position dominante dans le système de prise de décision.

Il est important de comprendre que Vladimir Poutine voit de nombreuses questions internes de développement à travers le prisme de la sécurité nationale et des relations avec l’étranger, d’où une confiance plus prononcée dans l’approche et la vision du monde des structures de forces. A mon avis, la déclaration de Sergueï Tchemezov est, avant tout, la manifestation d’une opposition de plus en plus prononcée d’une partie de l’élite poutinienne privilégiée à la domination des approches des siloviki pour résoudre les problèmes internes du pays.

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Commentary for The Financial Times

Russians feel the pain of Vladimir Putin’s regime

“The essence of this response is the attempts of the institutions of power to individually prove to Putin their ‘political responsibility’ and ‘trustworthiness’,” says Tatiana Stanovaya, founder of R. Politik, a political consultancy. “As the saying goes, ‘those who can protect themselves, save themselves’. This is the erosion of the regime.” …
“The current criminal prosecution of the opposition resembles the protests of 2012 [against Mr Putin’s return to the presidency]. However, there is a fundamental difference — then Putin was personally involved in the promotion of this response?.?.?.?It was clear that this was a matter of principle for him,” says Ms Stanovaya. “This means that criminal prosecution [now] will not necessarily be ‘holistic’ and thoughtful, but rather chaotic and conflicting,” she adds. “After all, it is one thing to not let [the opposition] take part in the polls, and quite another to sweep away all the unwanted people into police trucks.”

Commentary for Libération

Pourquoi Emmanuel Macron reçoit Vladimir Poutine au fort de Brégançon

«Lors de son arrivée au pouvoir, Macron a d’abord été vu avec perplexité, confirme la politologue russe basée en France Tatiana Stanovaya. Trop inexpérimenté, faible et dépendant des Etats-Unis… Les Russes ne voyaient pas d’avancée majeure possible avec lui. Les griefs étaient également d’ordre émotionnel.» …

«La relation a beaucoup évolué en deux ans, dit Tatiana Stanovaya. Particulièrement depuis ce début d’année 2019. Et puis de nombreux officiels russes voient toujours les deux pays comme fondamentalement amis et partenaires, depuis toujours.» …

Si Macron, qui a pris l’initiative d’améliorer les relations bilatérales franco-russes, peut être vu en Russie comme un président de meilleure composition pour remonter la pente, Moscou ne s’enflamme pas pour autant. «Il y a toujours des doutes sur son vrai pouvoir, explique Tatiana Stanovaya. Macron est aussi toujours vu comme naïf et ambitieux, pensant qu’il va pouvoir tout accomplir, mais fonctionnant sur le mode “beaucoup de bruit pour peu de résultats”.» Les dossiers chauds ne manquent pas

Commentary for The Independent

Russia protests: Riot police violently break up Moscow demonstration as thousands take to streets in defiance of Kremlin

Hundreds arrested during protest calling for free elections

Oliver Carroll

That was the moment that a local problem became a national crisis — and one that is certain to grow, says Tatyana Stanovaya, an analyst at the Carnegie Moscow Centre.

“Nobody in the Kremlin is looking for a solution, because they have denied themselves the political instruments they need to find one,” she says. “Putin has made it clear that there will be no concessions to the unsanctioned opposition. He doesn’t consider them politicians. He thinks they are westernised gangsters trying to take over the state.”

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Commentary for POLITICO.EU

Moscow protests pose problem for Putin

Police crack down on pro-democracy activists ahead of September’s vote for the Moscow city assembly.

“The Kremlin has decided that no one from the non-systemic opposition, and especially those candidates associated with Navalny, should be allowed to take part in the elections,” said Tatiana Stanovaya, head of the political analysis firm R.Politik. “The Kremlin doesn’t consider them to be politicians. It believes they are acting against Russia’s national interests. The authorities are simply not capable of dialogue with a genuine opposition.”

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Commentary for Carnegie Moscow Center

Moscow Protests Are Good News for Opposition–and Siloviki

By Tatiana Stanovaya

This month’s protests in Moscow over city parliament elections are proof that Russia’s non-systemic opposition has taken its struggle to be recognized by the Kremlin as a major political player to a new level. Faced with a foe that has seized the initiative, set the agenda, and brought people into the streets, the Kremlin is at a loss. Its brightest idea, it seems, is to forcibly disperse the protests and prosecute the demonstrators: an approach that risks the state’s takeover by the siloviki.

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Why the Kremlin Can’t Keep its Chekists in Check

RIDDLE

by

Now that Cherkalin has been arrested and Tkachev has the upper hand, a question arises: was this all an attack on the latter? One theory holds that Feoktistov and Tkachev established a circle within the security services which was autonomous and able to exert its own influence. The two security officials were not simply Korolyov’s men, but were in fact counterweights to his influence. According to information from various sources, it was namely due to the stringent positions of Korolyev that Feoktistov was unable to return to the FSB after Ulyukayev’s arrest. Another theory proposes that president Vladimir Putin personally intervened, as he was dissatisfied with Feoktistov’s excessive toughness towards figures who play an important role in Russia’s system of governance; not just Ulyukayev, but also the oligarch Nikolai Tokarev, who is president of the pipeline company Transneft. This was when “Sechin’s special forces” began to be reformed; without Feoktistov by his side, Tkachev’s position weakened.

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Putin allies’ oil feud spills into public view
JULY 25, 2019 / 7:12 AM

Tatiana Stanovaya, head of analysis firm R.Politik, said Putin’s hands-off approach also reflected a change in how he governed Russia and a move to distance himself from some domestic matters and focus instead on international affairs.

“The Putin system is still there but Putin isn’t because he’s gone into geopolitics,” said Stanovaya. “And without him everyone fights among themselves.”

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Bloomberg quotes the Bulletin No. 14 (32) 2019

Russia Opposition Leader Detained as Moscow Vote Standoff Grows

The wave of unrest in Moscow is becoming “a serious risk for the Kremlin,” said Tatiana Stanovaya, an independent political analyst. It “cannot be ignored politically,” she said.
Moscow mayor Sergei Sobyanin, a key Putin ally who’s run the city since 2010, is taking a hardline approach toward the opposition because “it is extremely important for him to show he can control the situation in the capital,” said Stanovaya, the political analyst.

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