R.Politik CEO and founder, Tatiana Stanovaya, is regularly quoted by major Russian and international media outlets. She is available for commentary in Russian and English.
Putin’s Bid to Extend Rule Is Approved by Russia’s Parliament
Constitutional changes could make Putin the longest-ruling leader in Russia’s modern history, surpassing Stalin
The amendment passed this week, however, could galvanize the Russian opposition as it provides a clear path for Mr. Putin to remain in power, said Tatiana Stanovaya, founder of political analysis firm R.Politik.
“The opposition received an important reason to question and attack Putin’s reform. All the hopes for change crashed yesterday,” Ms. Stanovaya said. “It will be a challenge for the Kremlin.”
A series of constitutional amendments Mr. Putin recently proposed are also a sign of his increasingly traditionalist, nationalistic policies, observers say. They include a provision effectively banning same-sex marriage and enshrining in the constitution the mention of Russians’ “faith in God.”
Mr. Putin’s rule “becomes more ideological and it fuels more radical, more nationalistic-minded forces, conservatives to push forward their agenda and to tighten the screws,” Ms. Stanovaya said.
Putin once told Russians he didn’t want to be the ‘eternal president.’ Now it appears he does.
Putin in January even recommended stricter presidential term limits and the transfer of more power to parliament.So his apparent shift Tuesday caught Russians off guard. The message now is that Putin could be in the Kremlin until he is in his 80s.
“We were convinced that Putin is going to leave in 2024, and finally we see that we all were wrong,” said Tatiana Stanovaya, a nonresident scholar at Carnegie Moscow Center and the head of R. Politik, a think tank. Now, she said, the constitutional process seems built to avoid being accused of simply appointing himself “the eternal president,” Stanovaya added.
“As we understand it now, there are two Putins,” Stanovaya said. “One Putin dreams about the very far future, where we will have a just and democratic system with a rotation of leaders.
“But if we’re talking about now, present-day Putin thinks about stability, about enemies abroad, crises,” she added. “And for him, it’s not a good moment to begin to live in this illusionary good world where we have a successor.”
Putin approves changes allowing him to stay in power until 2036
Putin, 67, now had more room to maneuver politically, said Tatiana Stanovaya, a non-resident scholar at the Carnegie Moscow Center.
His stance handed him the option to run again in 2024 should he choose to do so and removed political challenges raised by what had been seen as his last term in the Kremlin, she added.
“The successor issue disappears. The issue of Putin as a lame duck disappears,” said Stanovaya.
Opposition activists said they planned to protest against what some called a rewriting of the constitution in the interests of the ruling elite. One group said it had applied for permission to stage a demonstration on March 21.
Russian gaming guru enters politics, but is he playing for the Kremlin?
Observers say it’s also unlikely that any of the new parties will meet the five percent threshold needed to enter parliament.
“The main objective is really to minimise the risk of a decline in the popularity of the ruling United Russia party,” said Tatiana Stanovaya of the R.Politik think tank.
– Ruling party woes –
United Russia is experiencing a slump in support over Russia’s ailing economy, with just 33 percent of voters saying they will cast their ballots for the once-dominant party in upcoming elections, according to state polling agency VTsIOM.
The figures mark a steep decline from 2016, when United Russia won 54 percent of votes in legislative elections.
Another recent entry to politics was Sergei Shnurov, the lead singer of hit rock group Leningrad.
Shnurov joined the Growth Party — founded in 2016 by a Putin ally — last month, taking care to delete old social media comments critical of the president.
This sudden burst of activity, says Stanovaya, is designed by the Kremlin to draw attention from Russia’s difficulties.
“These manoeuvres are not an attempt to talk about the future of the country,” she said, instead describing it as a strategy to “avoid real problems”.
Russie : Vladimir Poutine remet son compteur présidentiel à zéro
Prenant de vitesse l’opposition et les observateurs, le Président a fait voter à la Douma un amendement qui lui permettra de briguer un nouveau mandat en 2024, voire en 2030.
«Mais on s’est tous laissés endormir», regrette la politologue Tatiana Stanovaya, qui avait déniché une déclaration de Poutine datant de 2008 dans laquelle il parlait d’une «réinitialisation» du compteur des mandats, si jamais on enlevait de la Constitution la limitation à deux mandats consécutifs. «A l’époque, j’avais fini par me ranger à l’avis des juristes que j’avais consultés, selon lesquels une telle décision était beaucoup trop explosive, car anticonstitutionnelle, et qu’il n’oserait pas…»
Poutine lui-même a distillé ces dernières semaines de faibles signaux pouvant annoncer un possible départ en parlant d’alternance, de changements… «Et pendant ce temps, le débat sur la réforme constitutionnelle s’est déplacé sur des sujets comme les enfants, Dieu, le Conseil d’Etat, libéré du poids mortifère de la question de savoir si Poutine restait ou non», poursuit Stanovaya.
January 23, 2020
By Tatiana Stanovaya
The Russian government has never been as nonpolitical as it is today. The new cabinet appointed by President Vladimir Putin this week is purely technocratic. It seems that eighteen months after he began his fourth presidential term, Putin has finally put in place the government he will need to help him navigate the handover of power to a successor.
November 27, 2019
By Tatiana Stanovaya
The fate of the United Russia ruling party has long been under discussion, following a slump in its ratings and electoral defeats for its candidates: will it be replaced with some kind of new project, merged into a broader coalition, or put to the side completely? The party’s annual congress that took place in Moscow on November 23, therefore, was expected to shed light on the Kremlin’s plans for the party. After all, in many ways, the endurance of the regime itself depends on the strength of the party’s position.
By Tatiana Stanovaya, November 1, 2019
In some ways, it seems strange to talk of a political crisis: the Moscow protests have been stamped out and amounted to nothing, pro-regime candidates won in nearly all the regional elections, and political life in Russia appears to be returning to normal.